Research
Book Project
“Election Fraud in Authoritarian Regimes: Methods and Theories”
Working Papers
Kalinin, Kirill (2023). Improving GPT Generated Synthetic Samples with Sampling-Permutation Algorithm. PolMeth, Stanford.
Kalinin, Kirill (2023). Geopolitical Forecasting Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War Using the Expert’s Survey, Predictioneer’s Game and GPT-3. MPSA, Chicago, APSA, Los Angeles.
Kalinin, Kirill (2023). Generation of Synthetic Responses to Survey Questions Using GPT-3: A Case of Hard-to-Reach Members of Russian Elites (based on the Survey of Russian Elites). MPSA, Chicago.
Kalinin, Kirill (2022). An Empirical Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Methods Applied to the Measurement of Election Fraud. MPSA, Chicago.
Kalinin, Kirill (2018). Election Fraud and Political Survival of Subnational Actors: A Case of Russia. APSA, Boston.
Kalinin, Kirill and Walter R. Mebane, Jr. (2017). Worst Election Ever in Russia?. MPSA, Chicago.
Kalinin, Kirill and Allen Hicken (2017). Using Election Forensics to Detect Election Fraud in the Philippine Elections, 2016. APSA, San Francisco.
Mebane, Walter R. Jr. and Kirill Kalinin (2014). Geography in Election Forensics. APSA, Washington DC.
Kalinin, Kirill and Walter R. Mebane, Jr. (2012). Understanding Electoral Frauds Through Evolution of Russian Federalism: from ‘Bargaining Loyalty’ to ‘Signaling Loyalty’. MPSA, Chicago.
Mebane, Walter R. Jr. and Kirill Kalinin (2010). Electoral Fraud in Russia: Vote Counts Analysis using Second-digit Mean Tests. MPSA, Chicago.
Mebane, Walter R. Jr. and Kirill Kalinin (2009). Comparative Election Fraud Detection. APSA, Toronto.
Research in Progress
“Measuring Human Curiosity with LLM” (with Valentin Bolotnyy)
“Effects of the Exclusiveness of National Identity on the Level of Democracy in the 20th Century Post-Colonial States” (with Maya Tudor)
“Machine Learning in Election Forensics Research”
“Election Fraud and Agent-Based Modeling”
“Contemporary Russian Politics Through the Prism of Selectorate Theory”
“Election Fraud and Political Protests in Russia”
“Precinct-level Database of Election Fraud in Russia (2000-2020)”