I am a political methodologist and comparativist with expertise in statistical analysis, artificial intelligence, election forensics, survey methodology and statistical software development.

I have worked at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution since 2017 in various positions as a National Fellow, Researcher and Data Analyst. Before coming to Stanford, I studied and worked at the University of Michigan, where I received my PhD in political science in 2017.

My research in political science has been published in Political Studies, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, British Journal of Politics and International Relations, Russian Politics and Electoral Politics. I have authored and co-authored several statistical packages and co-created Election Forensics Toolkit web application, providing useful accuracy diagnostics for detection and measurement of election fraud. I am also one of the co-organizers of the Survey of Russian Elites. My research has been featured in various media outlets.

I can be reached at kirill.kalinin [at] gmail [dot] com. You can find my CV here.

Selected Publications

Kalinin, Kirill (2022). Signaling Games of Election Fraud: A Case of Russia. Russian Politics.

Kalinin, Kirill (2019). Russian Elites and Dugin’s Neo-Eurasianism: Empirical Analysis of 2012 and 2016. Post-Soviet Affairs.

Golosov, Grigorii and Kirill Kalinin (2017). Presidentialism and Legislative Fragmentation Beyond Coattail Effects. British Journal of Politics and International Relations.

Kalinin, Kirill (2016). A Study of Social Desirability Bias at the Russian Presidential Elections 2012. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.

Selected Working Papers

Kalinin, Kirill (2023). Improving GPT Generated Synthetic Samples with Sampling-Permutation Algorithm. PolMeth, Stanford.

Kalinin, Kirill (2023). Geopolitical Forecasting Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War Using the Expert’s Survey, Predictioneer’s Game and GPT-3. MPSA, Chicago.

Kalinin, Kirill (2023). Generation of Synthetic Responses to Survey Questions Using GPT-3: A Case of Hard-to-Reach Members of Russian Elites (based on the Survey of Russian Elites). MPSA, Chicago.

Kalinin, Kirill (2022). An Empirical Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Methods Applied to the Measurement of Election Fraud. MPSA, Chicago.